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Slow Variables

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Diffusion / bucket 4

Adaptation

Stock
Workflows, institutions, labour markets and regulation reorganised around the technology.
Speed limit
Complementary innovation, regulation, safety brakes and the pace of institutional change.
Valve measured
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Indicators

US labour productivity, year on yeargrade A
consistent with normallagging80/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
2.2%as of 2026-06-30
US total factor productivity, private nonfarm businessgrade A
consistent with normallagging75/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
0.8%as of 2025-12-31(2 obs)
Safety brakes inside the labs (events, trailing year)grade D
emergingleading40/95 confidence, limited or vague
3as of 2026-09-01(3 obs)
FDA-authorised AI-enabled devices, growthgrade A
consistent with normalcoincident70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
26.7%as of 2026-06-30(2 obs)
US state AI bills introduced (legislative year)grade B
emerginglagging55/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
1035as of 2025-12-31
FDA-authorised devices built on a large language modelgrade A
consistent with normalleading60/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
1as of 2025-12-23(3 obs)
Employment in AI-exposed occupations, year on yeargrade C
consistent with normalcoincident80/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
-0.2%as of 2026-06-30
Entry-level employment shortfall in AI-exposed occupationsgrade B
emergingleading70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
19.0%as of 2026-06-30
Exposed vs unexposed occupation employment gap (Revelio)grade B
emergingcoincident65/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
-6.0%as of 2026-07-31
California unemployment claims from AI-exposed occupationsgrade A
consistent with normalleading70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
1.0%as of 2026-07-31
Recent-graduate unemployment rate (NY Fed)grade A
consistent with normallagging75/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
5.6%as of 2026-06-30
Cross-tracker concordance (labour)grade B
consistent with normalcoincident70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
0as of 2026-07-31(4 obs)
US labour share of income, year on yeargrade A
emerginglagging65/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
-3.4%as of 2026-06-30(2 obs)
Customer-support productivity uplift from a generative-AI assistantgrade B
consistent with normalcoincident75/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
14.0%as of 2023-04-30
Executives reporting no AI impact on their own firmgrade C
consistent with normallagging70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
90.0%as of 2026-02-28
Workers highly exposed to AI with low adaptive capacitygrade B
emergingleading45/95 confidence, limited or vague
3,300,000 workersas of 2026-01-31
Occupational-mix dissimilarity since ChatGPT (Yale Budget Lab)grade B
consistent with normallagging65/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
5.26 ppas of 2026-03-01
Chatbot effect on earnings and hours in exposed occupations (Denmark)grade B
consistent with normallagging80/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
0.0%as of 2024-12-31
Freelance writing earnings after ChatGPT (Upwork)grade B
consistent with normalleading70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
-5.2%as of 2023-12-01
Wage premium for AI skills (PwC AI Jobs Barometer)grade C
emergingcoincident50/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
62.0%as of 2025-12-31
Waymo paid rides per weekgrade C
consistent with normalcoincident65/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
500,000 rides per weekas of 2026-03-27

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