Crosswalk

The same observations carry a diffusion address (bucket, valve) and a capture address (layer, sub-layer). Diffusion asks how fast value moves; capture asks who keeps it. The leak on the diffusion diagram is the capture lens.

Diffusion bucket	Relation	Capture layer	Note	Shared indicators
Methods	same valve	Model	Capability growth is the model layer's product; inference price at fixed capability ⇄ price-per-token pass-through; open-weights lag ⇄ open-vs-closed gap.	METR 50% time horizon METR 80% time horizon 50%/80% horizon ratio
Methods	input to	Compute & physical	Compute growth and hardware perf-per-dollar feed the methods stock.
Products	same valve	Serving & orchestration	Productisation runs through serving, routing and agent infrastructure.
Products	same valve	Deployment & application	Uplift RCTs, pilot→production and app-layer margin net of inference measure the same valve.
Early adoption	same valve	Adopters	BTOS, BBD, Ramp and the Anthropic Economic Index are adoption from both ends.
Adaptation	same valve	Labour & consumers	Productivity, wages, employment and consumer surplus.
Adaptation	leak from	Deployment & application / Deployment / FDE / implementation services	Deployment/FDE services capture part of the surplus that adaptation creates.
Return arrow	return arrow	Training input	Expert data, RL environments and continual-learning infra are the deployment→invention channel; lab recoupment ⇄ capex-to-revenue.
Leak	leak from	Compute & physical	Margin stacking, HHI, circular financing: surplus exiting the chain at semis and cloud. Interpretive spine: Teece, Nordhaus, Perez, Ding (docs/interpretation).