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Slow Variables

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Capture / layer 1

Compute & physical

Semis, hyperscalers and neoclouds, data centres and power, memory/networking. Dependency tier 1.

Indicators

Rent concentration in semiconductorsgrade A
concentratinglagging85/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
75.0%as of 2026-07-26(2 obs)
Cloud backlog (remaining performance obligations)grade A
concentratingleading80/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
$638Bas of 2026-05-31
Semiconductors' share of stack operating incomegrade A
concentratinglagging70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
57.3%as of 2026-06-30(8 obs)
Cloud segment operating marginsgrade A
stablelagging75/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
39.4%as of 2026-06-30(2 obs)
Circular financing scalegrade A
concentratingleading75/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
$903Bas of 2026-08-17(14 obs)
Concentration among covered chip filers (HHI)grade A
unclearleading60/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
0.85 indexas of 2026-06-30(2 obs)
Concentration among covered cloud filers (HHI)grade A
dispersingleading60/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
0.35 indexas of 2026-03-31(3 obs)
Non-Nvidia share of AI compute shipped (H100-equivalents)grade B
emergingleading50/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
26.0%as of 2026-03-31(3 obs)
Hyperscaler capex to AI revenue (trailing year)grade A
dispersingleading40/95 confidence, limited or vague
2.51×as of 2026-06-30(16 obs)
Hyperscaler server useful lives (10-K estimates)grade A
not yet measurablelagging65/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
5.00 yearsas of 2025-12-31
Neocloud borrowing cost (CoreWeave facility rates)grade A
not yet measurablecoincident60/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
10.5%as of 2026-06-30(4 obs)
Training power draw growth (doubling time)grade B
emergingleading50/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
506 daysas of 2026-08-07(213 obs)
Hardware price-performance growth (doubling time)grade B
consistent with normalleading40/95 confidence, limited or vague
1282 daysas of 2025-11-06(20 obs)

Sub-layers

  1. 1. Semiconductors & AI chip startups
  2. 2. Hyperscalers
  3. 3. Data-centre developers & power
  4. 4. Memory/HBM

Crosswalk to the diffusion lens

  • Methods (input to) — Compute growth and hardware perf-per-dollar feed the methods stock.
  • Leak (leak from) — Margin stacking, HHI, circular financing: surplus exiting the chain at semis and cloud. Interpretive spine: Teece, Nordhaus, Perez, Ding (docs/interpretation).