Skip to content
Slow Variables

Ask the data

Answers come from the same store as the site; every number is checked against the record it cites.

Compute & physical

Non-Nvidia share of AI compute shipped (H100-equivalents)

emerging50/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalisegrade Bleading

1What this measures

Non-Nvidia designers' share of cumulative AI compute shipped, in H100-equivalents, at each complete quarter end, from Epoch's chip-sales estimates. Derived metric custom_silicon_share.

Why it matters. The leading indicator of Nvidia rent decay; TPUs, Trainium and AMD are the routes around the chokepoint.

Proxy types
market_structure
Unit
share
Cadence
quarterly

2How we track this

  • derived metric custom_silicon_share (formula in the semantic layer)

Direction over 4 periods, dead-band 2.0%; higher = dispersing.

Four quarters; under two points is inside Epoch's estimate ranges. Rising non-Nvidia share = the chip layer's rent dispersing.

Applied to metric:custom_silicon_share.

3Tracker interpretation

Google's TPUs are internal, not sold, so the share overstates merchant competition; the direction still says whether the chokepoint is being routed around.

4Evidence

Direction over the last 4 periods; the band is ±2.0% around the window's first point. Higher reads dispersing.

Latest point
26.0%as of 2026-03-31(3 obs)
Value the bands apply to
26.0%as of 2026-03-31(3 obs)

51 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.

Derived rows (9)
as ofdimsvalueinputs
2026-03-3126.0%obs:0b478992obs:729cf457obs:e48110ff
2025-12-3132.8%obs:1c4820aeobs:399214e4obs:83fc6986+3 more
2025-09-3032.9%obs:794c0c34obs:af30d591obs:b02db852+3 more
2025-06-3032.0%obs:18b66b3aobs:71df663dobs:9bd1de00+3 more
2025-03-3130.9%obs:3c187934obs:4c91fe44obs:6edafba9+3 more
2024-12-3129.6%obs:12e72164obs:7a76f7cfobs:8996cb4b+3 more
2024-09-3027.1%obs:0d30add2obs:5d680bb5obs:69345757+3 more
2024-06-3023.5%obs:2d277486obs:8663febdobs:88d6745f+3 more
2024-03-3119.1%obs:01464143obs:2a384326obs:331a0e42+3 more

5Status and reasoning

emergingsince 2026-09-10 · evaluate

Epoch's chip-sales estimates: non-Nvidia designers (Google TPU, AMD, Amazon, Huawei, Cambricon) held about a third of cumulative H100-equivalent compute shipped through 2025 and 26% at end-March 2026 as Nvidia's Blackwell ramp outpaced them, so the direction reads concentrating in the chip layer. Single tier-6 source with wide estimate ranges caps the status at emerging. Initial seed.

The tracker's prior expectation was dispersing; the evaluator reads emerging. The evaluator wins until a reviewed override.

6Timeline notes

  • 2026-03-31 · 26.0%as of 2026-03-31(3 obs)
  • 2025-12-31 · 32.8%as of 2025-12-31(6 obs)
  • 2025-09-30 · 32.9%as of 2025-09-30(6 obs)
  • 2025-06-30 · 32.0%as of 2025-06-30(6 obs)
  • 2025-03-31 · 30.9%as of 2025-03-31(6 obs)
  • 2024-12-31 · 29.6%as of 2024-12-31(6 obs)

7Counterevidence

What cuts against this reading

Epoch's estimates carry 5th-95th percentile ranges of a third or more; cumulative shares move slowly by construction.

8Update history

  1. 2026-09-10unmeasured to emergingconf — → 50 · evaluate

    Epoch's chip-sales estimates: non-Nvidia designers (Google TPU, AMD, Amazon, Huawei, Cambricon) held about a third of cumulative H100-equivalent compute shipped through 2025 and 26% at end-March 2026 as Nvidia's Blackwell ramp outpaced them, so the direction reads concentrating in the chip layer. Single tier-6 source with wide estimate ranges caps the status at emerging. Initial seed.

    obs:0b478992obs:729cf457obs:e48110ff

9Confidence

50 / 95 — mixed or hard to operationalise

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.

10Related