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Compute & physical

Cloud segment operating margins

stable75/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguitygrade Alagging

1What this measures

Operating income over revenue for AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft Intelligent Cloud, per fiscal quarter, from 10-Q/10-K segment disclosures (derived metric segment_operating_margin). Headline slice is AWS.

Why it matters. Whether the cloud layer keeps its margin while capex explodes is the capex-to-revenue question in filed form; depreciation-life changes show up here first.

Proxy types
market_structure
Unit
share
Cadence
quarterly

2How we track this

  • derived metric segment_operating_margin (formula in the semantic layer)

Direction over 4 periods, dead-band 2.0%; higher = concentrating.

Four fiscal quarters; two points of margin is noise. Rising cloud margin under rising capex means the layer is keeping surplus.

Applied to metric:segment_operating_margin.

3Tracker interpretation

Cloud margins have held through the capex wave so far; depreciation schedules do a lot of the holding.

4Evidence

Direction over the last 4 periods; the band is ±2.0% around the window's first point. Higher reads concentrating.

Latest point
39.4%as of 2026-06-30(2 obs)
Value the bands apply to
39.4%as of 2026-06-30(2 obs)

20 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.

Derived rows (10)
as ofdimsvalueinputs
2026-06-30amzn.aws39.4%obs:6fb0f8f0obs:89c26630
2026-03-31amzn.aws37.7%obs:609a8130obs:a26cee82
2025-09-30amzn.aws34.6%obs:0c0a639dobs:26937536
2025-06-30amzn.aws32.9%obs:02f5657cobs:59b9142f
2025-03-31amzn.aws39.5%obs:5023e66bobs:cc018f4b
2024-09-30amzn.aws38.1%obs:7a234cd5obs:b67f8ba7
2024-06-30amzn.aws35.5%obs:48b581ddobs:72913db6
2024-03-31amzn.aws37.6%obs:daeb11f8obs:e8369d0c
2023-09-30amzn.aws30.3%obs:87ced855obs:fdddee57
2023-06-30amzn.aws24.2%obs:2421e110obs:9c7c753c

5Status and reasoning

stablesince 2026-09-10 · claude-initial-seed

AWS operating margin by fiscal quarter (10-Q/10-K segment disclosure): Mar 2025 39.5%, Jun 2025 32.9%, Sep 2025 34.6%, Mar 2026 37.7%, Jun 2026 39.4%. Within the two-point dead band over four quarters despite record capex; Google Cloud and Intelligent Cloud tracked alongside. Initial seed.

6Timeline notes

  • 2026-06-30 · 39.4%as of 2026-06-30(2 obs)
  • 2026-03-31 · 37.7%as of 2026-03-31(2 obs)
  • 2025-09-30 · 34.6%as of 2025-09-30(2 obs)
  • 2025-06-30 · 32.9%as of 2025-06-30(2 obs)
  • 2025-03-31 · 39.5%as of 2025-03-31(2 obs)
  • 2024-09-30 · 38.1%as of 2024-09-30(2 obs)

7Counterevidence

What cuts against this reading

Segment margins blend AI and non-AI workloads; useful-life extensions flatter them; Google Cloud's margin is on a much smaller base.

8Update history

  1. 2026-09-10unmeasured to stableconf — → 75 · claude-initial-seed

    AWS operating margin by fiscal quarter (10-Q/10-K segment disclosure): Mar 2025 39.5%, Jun 2025 32.9%, Sep 2025 34.6%, Mar 2026 37.7%, Jun 2026 39.4%. Within the two-point dead band over four quarters despite record capex; Google Cloud and Intelligent Cloud tracked alongside. Initial seed.

    obs:6fb0f8f0obs:89c26630

9Confidence

75 / 95 — good evidence, some ambiguity

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.

10Related