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Compute & physical

Semiconductors' share of stack operating income

concentrating70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguitygrade Alagging

1What this measures

The chip layer's share of filed segment operating income across the AI stack's public filers, per calendar quarter (NVIDIA Compute & Networking and AMD Data Center versus AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft Intelligent Cloud). Derived metric margin_stack_share_by_layer, semis slice.

Why it matters. The capture thesis in one number. "Rents migrate up the stack" means this share falls over four quarters while labs and apps rise; Nvidia holding its share means the bulge stays at the bottom.

Proxy types
market_structure
Unit
share
Cadence
quarterly

2How we track this

  • derived metric margin_stack_share_by_layer (formula in the semantic layer)

Direction over 4 periods, dead-band 2.0%; higher = concentrating.

Four calendar quarters; a move under two points is within fiscal-calendar noise. Rising semis share = rent concentrating at the chip layer; falling = migrating up.

Applied to metric:margin_stack_share_by_layer.

3Tracker interpretation

Segment operating income, not gross profit, and only the two layers with filings so far; the labs and apps slices arrive with estimated series and are flagged as such.

4Evidence

Direction over the last 4 periods; the band is ±2.0% around the window's first point. Higher reads concentrating.

Latest point
57.3%as of 2026-06-30(8 obs)
Value the bands apply to
57.3%as of 2026-06-30(8 obs)

42 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.

Derived rows (7)
as ofdimsvalueinputs
2026-06-30compute_semis57.3%obs:288c79d6obs:815ceb0bobs:87068884+5 more
2026-03-31compute_semis56.9%obs:00707cd6obs:187ebdaaobs:23b3041e+5 more
2025-09-30compute_semis50.9%obs:187ebdaaobs:26937536obs:37fdb157+2 more
2025-06-30compute_semis46.6%obs:02f5657cobs:23b3041eobs:25f769c8+5 more
2025-03-31compute_semis51.0%obs:33e002b2obs:4e31dd06obs:6c32c53e+5 more
2024-09-30compute_semis46.5%obs:2dfc3adfobs:6c32c53eobs:90cc0748+2 more
2024-06-30compute_semis46.7%obs:15de9190obs:33e002b2obs:3803a124+5 more

5Status and reasoning

concentratingsince 2026-09-10 · claude-initial-seed

Semis' share of filed segment operating income (NVIDIA Compute & Networking + AMD Data Center vs AWS + Google Cloud + Microsoft Intelligent Cloud), by calendar quarter: Mar 2025 51.0%, Jun 2025 46.6%, Sep 2025 50.9%, Mar 2026 56.9%, Jun 2026 57.3%. Up more than the two-point dead band over four quarters, with every step up or flat: the bulge is moving down the stack, not up. Microsoft's fiscal Q4 filled as FY minus three quarters. Initial seed.

6Timeline notes

  • 2026-06-30 · 57.3%as of 2026-06-30(8 obs)
  • 2026-03-31 · 56.9%as of 2026-03-31(8 obs)
  • 2025-09-30 · 50.9%as of 2025-09-30(5 obs)
  • 2025-06-30 · 46.6%as of 2025-06-30(8 obs)
  • 2025-03-31 · 51.0%as of 2025-03-31(8 obs)
  • 2024-09-30 · 46.5%as of 2024-09-30(5 obs)

7Counterevidence

What cuts against this reading

Intelligent Cloud and AWS include non-AI workloads; Nvidia's fiscal quarter is a month later than the others; two of the seven layers are represented.

8Update history

  1. 2026-09-10unmeasured to concentratingconf — → 70 · claude-initial-seed

    Semis' share of filed segment operating income (NVIDIA Compute & Networking + AMD Data Center vs AWS + Google Cloud + Microsoft Intelligent Cloud), by calendar quarter: Mar 2025 51.0%, Jun 2025 46.6%, Sep 2025 50.9%, Mar 2026 56.9%, Jun 2026 57.3%. Up more than the two-point dead band over four quarters, with every step up or flat: the bulge is moving down the stack, not up. Microsoft's fiscal Q4 filled as FY minus three quarters. Initial seed.

    obs:288c79d6obs:815ceb0bobs:87068884obs:89c26630obs:a3832632obs:d271f3bf+2 more

9Confidence

70 / 95 — good evidence, some ambiguity

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.

10Related