Diffusion / bucket 1
Methods
- Stock
- Capabilities and methods — what the frontier can do on benchmarks and in the lab.
- Speed limit
- None inherent; capability can move fast. The paper's claim is that this stock is not the bottleneck.
- Valve measured
- invention to product
Indicators
METR 50% time horizongrade A
faster than normalleading80/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
17.4 h(8.5 h–55.1 h)⚑disputedas of 2026-04-07
METR 80% time horizongrade A
faster than normalleading70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
3.1 h(1.6 h–6.6 h)as of 2026-04-07
50%/80% horizon ratiograde A
consistent with normalleading70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
6.34×as of 2026-03-05(2 obs)
emergingleading60/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
170 daysas of 2025-07-09(66 obs)
emergingleading50/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
506 daysas of 2026-08-07(213 obs)
consistent with normalleading40/95 confidence, limited or vague
1282 daysas of 2025-11-06(20 obs)
emergingcoincident45/95 confidence, limited or vague
68 daysas of 2024-12-13(6 obs)
emergingleading40/95 confidence, limited or vague
2028 yearas of 2024-06-06
ARC-AGI-2 best scoregrade B
emergingleading55/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
95.0%as of 2026-09-03(203 obs)
consistent with normalleading60/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
2.04×as of 2026-03-05(2 obs)
emergingleading50/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalise
75.0%as of 2026-07-31
faster than normalleading70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
$2.0Bas of 2026-06-30
Crosswalk to the capture lens
- Model (same valve) — Capability growth is the model layer's product; inference price at fixed capability ⇄ price-per-token pass-through; open-weights lag ⇄ open-vs-closed gap.
- Compute & physical (input to) — Compute growth and hardware perf-per-dollar feed the methods stock.