Expert-data market run-rate (Mercor)

Gross annualised revenue run-rate of the largest expert-data vendor, Mercor, as reported in the press and by its founder; gross of the 60-70% paid out to experts.

Why it matters. The RL-environment and expert-data market is the input the fast scenario needs to keep scaling. A single vendor doubling to two billion gross in six months is that input arriving.

Proxy types

capital_flow, market_structure

Unit

USD

Cadence

quarterly

Valve

invention to product

• series dealroom.mercor.gross_revenue_run_rate_usd.pt
• series techcrunch.mercor.gross_revenue_run_rate_usd.pt
• source Dealroom news · default tier 5 · Dealroom; short quotation
• source TechCrunch · default tier 7 · TechCrunch; short quotation

Faster than normal. Labs are buying expert time at a pace the human-data layer has never seen, and most of it flows straight through to the experts.

2 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.

Evaluator: $2.0B (Dealroom news, 2026-06-30) is inside the faster than normal band (lo=$2.0B). Auto-reason; band rationale: Normal = the largest vendor under one billion gross, the scale the data-labelling leaders reached over a decade; fast = two billion or more at a single vendor, doubling within a year. Between is `emerging`.

• 2026-06-30 mercor · $2.0Bas of 2026-06-30

1. 2026-09-10○unmeasured →to ▲faster than normalconf — → 70 · evaluate

   Evaluator: $2.0B (Dealroom news, 2026-06-30) is inside the faster than normal band (lo=$2.0B). Auto-reason; band rationale: Normal = the largest vendor under one billion gross, the scale the data-labelling leaders reached over a decade; fast = two billion or more at a single vendor, doubling within a year. Between is `emerging`.

   obs:94474305

70 / 95 — good evidence, some ambiguity

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.

• Active RL-environment vendors (directory count) ◐emerging
• Frontier-lab revenue run-rates ▲concentrating