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Slow Variables

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Answers come from the same store as the site; every number is checked against the record it cites.

Capture / layer 3

Training input

Human data, RL environments, post-training platforms, synthetic data, licensing, evals. Dependency tier 2.

Indicators

Public text data exhaustion year (Epoch projection)grade B
emergingleading40/95 confidence, limited or vague
2028 yearas of 2024-06-06
Continual-learning ladder (highest production rung)grade D
emergingleading45/95 confidence, limited or vague
3.00 rungas of 2026-05-27(2 obs)
Active RL-environment vendors (directory count)grade B
emergingleading35/95 confidence, limited or vague
24as of 2026-07-15
Expert-data market run-rate (Mercor)grade C
faster than normalleading70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguity
$2.0Bas of 2026-06-30

Sub-layers

  1. 8. Human/expert data & labelling
  2. 9. RL environments
  3. 10. RLaaS / post-training / continual-learning infra
  4. 11. Synthetic data & pipelines
  5. 12. Permissioned data markets & licensing
  6. 13. Evals

Crosswalk to the diffusion lens

  • Return arrow (return arrow) — Expert data, RL environments and continual-learning infra are the deployment→invention channel; lab recoupment ⇄ capex-to-revenue.