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Slow Variables

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Diffusion / bucket 5

Return arrow

Stock
Deployment feedback flowing back into invention — data, RL environments, continual learning.
Speed limit
Whether the deployment→training channel is open and how far it substitutes for external bottlenecks.
Valve measured
leak

Indicators

Agent-workdays per human workday in frontier research (self-reported)grade D
emergingleading30/95 confidence, limited or vague
3.10×as of 2026-08-15
Human interventions on 4–8 hour agent tasks (self-reported)grade D
emergingleading30/95 confidence, limited or vague
50.0%as of 2026-07-31
Continual-learning ladder (highest production rung)grade D
emergingleading45/95 confidence, limited or vague
3.00 rungas of 2026-05-27(2 obs)
Active RL-environment vendors (directory count)grade B
emergingleading35/95 confidence, limited or vague
24as of 2026-07-15

Continual-learning ladder

L6Six-month-employee test passed

A frontier system passes a public benchmark for knowing an organisation the way a six-month employee would. Observables: the benchmark exists and a frontier system passes it.

L5Per-session weight updates that persist and pool

Updates from individual sessions persist and pool without forgetting. Observables: a lab release branded continual or online learning; a forgetting benchmark; per-user weight divergence.

L4Organisation knowledge in weights

Firm knowledge internalised in weights with measured retention. Observables: cl_forgetting_retention; firm-knowledge lift; cost per query.

L3Per-customer adapters on a cadencecurrent production level

Adapters per deployment, refreshed hourly to weekly, routed and versioned. Observables: cl_refresh_cadence_hours; cl_adapters_per_product; per-customer lift over time.

L2Population-level online learning

One objective, all users; the model updates from aggregate usage. Observables: refresh cadence; documented lift.

L1Gradient-free memory

Feedback distilled into retrievable rules; no weight change. Observables: pass^1 lift with memory; hold rate; transfer across models.

L0Static snapshot

Static snapshot; memory is files in context. Observables: none.

Production rows are vendors describing their own systems (tier 7 unless independently evaluated); research rows never move the level. The rule: L0-L3 normal, L4 emerging, L5-L6 fast.

Crosswalk to the capture lens

  • Training input (return arrow) — Expert data, RL environments and continual-learning infra are the deployment→invention channel; lab recoupment ⇄ capex-to-revenue.