Adaptation · Labour & consumers
Cross-tracker concordance (labour)
1What this measures
How many of the four labour trackers (Canaries payroll, Canaries entry-level, Revelio, CAIT) currently read past their own AI-attributable-break threshold. Derived metric cross_tracker_concordance, 0 to 4.
Why it matters. The thesis's falsification rule requires three trackers breaking concurrently, not one. This is that count, made explicit.
- Proxy types
- deployment, welfare
- Unit
- count
- Cadence
- monthly
- Valve
- adoption to adaptation
2How we track this
- derived metric
cross_tracker_concordance(formula in the semantic layer)
- Normal band
- ≤ 1
- Fast band
- ≥ 2
- Falsifying
- ≥ 3
Normal = at most one tracker past its threshold; fast = two; falsifying = three or more concurrently, per the thesis rules in the brief.
Applied to metric:cross_tracker_concordance.
3Tracker interpretation
Zero of four. The entry-level signal is real but below its threshold; nothing else is close.
4Evidence
4 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.
Derived rows (1)
| as of | dims | value | inputs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 0 | obs:2ec713fcobs:83c12befobs:a9276b9d+1 more |
5Status and reasoning
Zero of four labour trackers past their AI-attributable-break threshold as of July 2026: Canaries y/y -0.2% (threshold -3%), Revelio gap -6% (threshold -10%), CAIT +1.0% (threshold +5%), entry-level shortfall 19% (threshold 25%). The falsification rule needs three concurrent. Initial seed.
6Timeline notes
- 2026-07-31 · 0as of 2026-07-31(4 obs)
7Counterevidence
What cuts against this reading
Thresholds are ours; the four trackers measure different populations and geographies, so concurrence is a loose test.
8Update history
- 2026-09-10unmeasured to consistent with normalconf — → 70 · claude-initial-seed
Zero of four labour trackers past their AI-attributable-break threshold as of July 2026: Canaries y/y -0.2% (threshold -3%), Revelio gap -6% (threshold -10%), CAIT +1.0% (threshold +5%), entry-level shortfall 19% (threshold 25%). The falsification rule needs three concurrent. Initial seed.
9Confidence
70 / 95 — good evidence, some ambiguity
Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.
10Related
- Employment in AI-exposed occupations, year on year consistent with normal
- Exposed vs unexposed occupation employment gap (Revelio) emerging
- California unemployment claims from AI-exposed occupations consistent with normal
- Entry-level employment shortfall in AI-exposed occupations emerging
- Crosswalk: Adaptation ⇄ Labour & consumers (same valve)