Adaptation · Labour & consumers
Exposed vs unexposed occupation employment gap (Revelio)
1What this measures
Employment in the most AI-exposed occupations relative to the least exposed, since October 2022, from Revelio Labs' AI Labor Market Tracker (online profile data).
Why it matters. An independent, differently sourced read on the same question as the Canaries payroll series.
- Proxy types
- deployment, welfare
- Unit
- share
- Cadence
- monthly
- Valve
- adoption to adaptation
2How we track this
- series
revelio.us_exposed.growth_gap.m - source Revelio Labs AI Labor Market Tracker (US) · default tier 6 · Revelio Labs; short quotation
- Normal band
- ≥ -5.0%
- Fast band
- ≤ -10.0%
- Falsifying
- —
Normal = a relative gap of at most 5 points over nearly four years, within the drift between occupation groups in any period; fast = a 10-point or larger gap. Between is `emerging`.
Applied to revelio.us_exposed.growth_gap.m.
3Tracker interpretation
The gap widened from ~4% to ~6% in a month of releases; direction matters more than level here.
4Evidence
5Status and reasoning
Revelio Labs AI Labor Market Tracker, August 2026 edition (data to July 2026): employment in the most AI-exposed occupations is down ~6% relative to the least exposed since pre-ChatGPT, widened from ~4% in the previous edition. Between the normal band (>= -5%) and the fast band (<= -10%). Single source. Initial seed.
6Timeline notes
- 2026-07-31 us_exposed · -6.0%as of 2026-07-31
7Counterevidence
What cuts against this reading
Profile-based data over-represents white-collar workers; the event study's control group is not immune to AI; single source.
8Update history
- 2026-09-10unmeasured to emergingconf — → 65 · claude-initial-seed
Revelio Labs AI Labor Market Tracker, August 2026 edition (data to July 2026): employment in the most AI-exposed occupations is down ~6% relative to the least exposed since pre-ChatGPT, widened from ~4% in the previous edition. Between the normal band (>= -5%) and the fast band (<= -10%). Single source. Initial seed.
9Confidence
65 / 95 — mixed or hard to operationalise
Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.
10Related
- Employment in AI-exposed occupations, year on year consistent with normal
- Cross-tracker concordance (labour) consistent with normal
- Crosswalk: Adaptation ⇄ Labour & consumers (same valve)