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Adaptation · Labour & consumers

Entry-level employment shortfall in AI-exposed occupations

emerging70/95 confidence, good evidence, some ambiguitygrade Bleading

1What this measures

How far employment of 22–25-year-olds in the two most AI-exposed quintiles has fallen short of keeping pace with the three least exposed, per the Canaries paper (Aug 2026 revision).

Why it matters. If AI substitutes for the codified knowledge new graduates bring, the first sign is hiring, not separations. This is that sign.

Proxy types
deployment, welfare
Unit
share
Cadence
quarterly
Valve
adoption to adaptation

2How we track this

  • series stanford_del.us_entry_level_exposed.employment_gap.pt
  • series stanford_del.us_entry_level_exposed.employment_change_since_nov2022.pt
  • series stanford_del.us_entry_level_unexposed.employment_change_since_nov2022.pt
  • source Stanford Digital Economy Lab · default tier 6 · Working paper
Normal band
≤ 10.0%
Fast band
≥ 25.0%
Falsifying
—

Normal = a shortfall under 10 points, inside the range youth employment swings over a cycle; fast = 25 points or more. The current reading sits between, so it is `emerging`.

Applied to stanford_del.us_entry_level_exposed.employment_gap.pt.

3Tracker interpretation

Widening (15% to 19% in a year) and concentrated exactly where the paper says AI bites first. Real, but not yet the broad decline the falsification rule needs.

4Evidence

Latest point
19.0%as of 2026-06-30
us_entry_level_exposed
Value the bands apply to
19.0%as of 2026-06-30

4 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.

5Status and reasoning

emergingsince 2026-09-10 · claude-initial-seed

Canaries paper, August 2026 revision: the kept-pace shortfall for 22-25-year-olds in the two most-exposed quintiles is 19% as of June 2026, up from 15% at the July 2025 vintage; in levels, -11% vs +10% for the least exposed since November 2022. Between the normal band (<=10%) and the fast band (>=25%). Initial seed.

6Timeline notes

  • 2026-06-30 us_entry_level_exposed · 19.0%as of 2026-06-30
  • 2025-07-31 us_entry_level_exposed · 15.0%as of 2025-07-31

7Counterevidence

What cuts against this reading

Timing partly predates ChatGPT; hiring freezes in tech and finance explain part of it; the measure is relative, so exposed-occupation youth could be flat while others boom.

8Update history

  1. 2026-09-10unmeasured to emergingconf — → 70 · claude-initial-seed

    Canaries paper, August 2026 revision: the kept-pace shortfall for 22-25-year-olds in the two most-exposed quintiles is 19% as of June 2026, up from 15% at the July 2025 vintage; in levels, -11% vs +10% for the least exposed since November 2022. Between the normal band (<=10%) and the fast band (>=25%). Initial seed.

    obs:2ec713fc

9Confidence

70 / 95 — good evidence, some ambiguity

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.

10Related