Vertical versus horizontal application funding

dispersing45/95leading

1What this measures

Vertical AI primary-round dollars divided by coding-agent plus consumer-AI dollars, trailing four quarters, same sources. Derived metric vertical_vs_horizontal_apps.

Why it matters. The brief's bet that value at the application layer accrues to domain-specific products (P1 seed indicator 11); the ratio says where investors are placing it.

Proxy types: capital_flow
Unit: ratio
Cadence: quarterly

2How we track this

derived metric vertical_vs_horizontal_apps (formula in the semantic layer)

Direction over 4 periods, dead-band 0.20×; higher = concentrating.

Four quarters; a move under 0.2x is round timing. Rising = capital concentrating in vertical applications.

Applied to metric:vertical_vs_horizontal_apps.

3Tracker interpretation

Horizontal raises by entities without a matched CIK are missing, which biases the ratio upward until their filings are added.

4Evidence

Direction over the last 4 periods; the band is ±0.20× around the window's first point. Higher reads concentrating.

Latest point

2.30×as of 2026-03-31(11 obs)

Value the bands apply to

2.30×as of 2026-03-31(11 obs)

19 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.

Derived rows (5)

as of	value	inputs
2026-03-31	2.30×	obs:021fc48d obs:171e2305 obs:1ba7108c+8 more
2025-12-31	1.61×	obs:021fc48d obs:171e2305 obs:1ba7108c+7 more
2025-09-30	4.72×	obs:021fc48d obs:171e2305 obs:1ba7108c+8 more
2025-06-30	4.80×	obs:171e2305 obs:1ba7108c obs:23cfc0b2+8 more
2025-03-31	31.7×	obs:01ea4c9d obs:2730c9ad obs:39532a8e+5 more

5Status and reasoning

dispersingsince 2026-09-10 · evaluate

Evaluator: 2.298 (SEC EDGAR Form D (private offerings), 2026-03-31) reads dispersing over 4 periods with a dead band of 0.2. Auto-reason; rule rationale: Four quarters; a move under 0.2x is round timing. Rising = capital concentrating in vertical applications.

6Timeline notes

2026-03-31 · 2.30×as of 2026-03-31(11 obs)
2025-12-31 · 1.61×as of 2025-12-31(10 obs)
2025-09-30 · 4.72×as of 2025-09-30(11 obs)
2025-06-30 · 4.80×as of 2025-06-30(11 obs)
2025-03-31 · 31.7×as of 2025-03-31(8 obs)

7Counterevidence

What cuts against this reading

Coverage follows the seed list and CIK matching; one mega-round by a coding-agent company swings the ratio; dollars raised are not dollars captured.

8Update history

2026-09-10unmeasured to dispersingconf — → 45 · evaluate
Evaluator: 2.298 (SEC EDGAR Form D (private offerings), 2026-03-31) reads dispersing over 4 periods with a dead band of 0.2. Auto-reason; rule rationale: Four quarters; a move under 0.2x is round timing. Rising = capital concentrating in vertical applications.
obs:021fc48d obs:171e2305 obs:1ba7108c obs:23cfc0b2 obs:4cf34e73 obs:4ee36a38+5 more

9Confidence

45 / 95 — limited or vague evidence

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.

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