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Deployment & application

Public cloud software valuation multiples (Clouded Judgement)

emerging50/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalisegrade Bleading

1What this measures

Median enterprise value to next-twelve-months revenue across public cloud software companies, weekly, as computed by Jamin Ball's Clouded Judgement; the top-five median is tracked alongside.

Why it matters. The valuation multiple is the market's expectation of durable rent at the application layer. Compression toward low single digits prices in commoditisation by AI; recovery prices in apps keeping their surplus.

Proxy types
market_structure, price
Unit
ratio
Cadence
weekly

2How we track this

Direction over 8 periods, dead-band 0.30×; higher = concentrating.

Eight weekly prints (two months); a move under 0.3x of NTM revenue is market noise. Rising multiples = the market pricing more durable rents into the application layer.

Applied to clouded_judgment.saas_public.ev_ntm_revenue_median.w.

3Tracker interpretation

The median multiple fell to about 3x in spring 2026 on the 'AI eats software' trade and has recovered to the mid-4s; the top five trade above 30x.

4Evidence

Direction over the last 8 periods; the band is ±0.30× around the window's first point. Higher reads concentrating.

Latest point
4.40×as of 2026-09-04
saas_public
Value the bands apply to
4.40×as of 2026-09-04

40 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.

5Status and reasoning

emergingsince 2026-09-10 · evaluate

Clouded Judgement weekly medians: EV/NTM revenue for public cloud software fell to about 3x in spring 2026 and recovered to 4.4x by 4 Sep 2026 (top five at 31x). Over eight weekly prints the median rose from 3.5x to 4.4x, beyond the 0.3x dead band, so the direction reads concentrating (the market pricing more durable rents into the application layer). Capped at emerging because a single analyst's basket is tier 6 and there is no second source yet. Initial seed.

6Timeline notes

  • 2026-09-04 saas_public · 4.40×as of 2026-09-04
  • 2026-08-28 saas_public · 4.40×as of 2026-08-28
  • 2026-08-21 saas_public · 4.30×as of 2026-08-21
  • 2026-08-14 saas_public · 4.40×as of 2026-08-14
  • 2026-08-07 saas_public · 4.10×as of 2026-08-07
  • 2026-07-31 saas_public · 3.80×as of 2026-07-31

7Counterevidence

What cuts against this reading

One analyst's basket and methodology; multiples move with rates as much as with AI; the basket is incumbents, not AI-native apps.

8Update history

  1. 2026-09-10unmeasured to emergingconf — → 50 · evaluate

    Clouded Judgement weekly medians: EV/NTM revenue for public cloud software fell to about 3x in spring 2026 and recovered to 4.4x by 4 Sep 2026 (top five at 31x). Over eight weekly prints the median rose from 3.5x to 4.4x, beyond the 0.3x dead band, so the direction reads concentrating (the market pricing more durable rents into the application layer). Capped at emerging because a single analyst's basket is tier 6 and there is no second source yet. Initial seed.

    obs:69055459

9Confidence

50 / 95 — mixed or hard to operationalise

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.

10Related