Open-weights gap to the closed frontier (ECI points)

dispersing55/95leading

1What this measures

Gap in Epoch Capabilities Index points between the best closed-weights model and the best open-weights model, measured at each open-weights release. Derived metric open_vs_closed_gap.

Why it matters. Open-weight quality converging on the frontier is the single best leading indicator of model-layer commoditisation; a widening gap says the closed labs keep their rents.

Proxy types: benchmark, market_structure
Unit: index
Cadence: monthly

2How we track this

derived metric open_vs_closed_gap (formula in the semantic layer)

Direction over 4 periods, dead-band 2.00 index; higher = concentrating.

Four open-weights releases; a move under two ECI points is inside the index's confidence intervals. Widening gap = rents concentrating in the closed labs.

Applied to metric:open_vs_closed_gap.

3Tracker interpretation

Measured on Epoch's composite index, so it follows the benchmarks Epoch runs; a gap in points is not a gap in months.

4Evidence

Direction over the last 4 periods; the band is ±2.00 index around the window's first point. Higher reads concentrating.

Latest point

5.77 indexas of 2026-08-20(3 obs)

Value the bands apply to

5.77 indexas of 2026-08-20(3 obs)

141 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.

Derived rows (122)

as of	value	inputs
2026-08-20	5.77 index	obs:2202dee6 obs:92d9e212 obs:ec19ff83
2026-08-13	5.77 index	obs:0d746079 obs:2202dee6 obs:92d9e212
2026-07-31	5.77 index	obs:2202dee6 obs:3a6895b5 obs:92d9e212
2026-07-16	5.77 index	obs:2202dee6 obs:92d9e212
2026-07-15	11.5 index	obs:2202dee6 obs:b1c57b5c obs:ebf4836f
2026-07-15	11.5 index	obs:2202dee6 obs:472a6240 obs:ebf4836f
2026-06-16	11.5 index	obs:2202dee6 obs:ebf4836f
2026-06-12	12.4 index	obs:2202dee6 obs:7313ea1c obs:74019ff6
2026-06-04	11.3 index	obs:222a342c obs:280009b4 obs:7313ea1c
2026-06-01	11.3 index	obs:280009b4 obs:7313ea1c obs:d2bbc63f
2026-04-28	11.3 index	obs:280009b4 obs:7313ea1c obs:db232b22
2026-04-24	11.3 index	obs:280009b4 obs:7313ea1c obs:e2ec2503
2026-04-24	11.3 index	obs:280009b4 obs:7313ea1c obs:d471ec4f
2026-04-22	7.92 index	obs:366d1592 obs:7313ea1c obs:d092bfa7
2026-04-20	7.92 index	obs:7313ea1c obs:d092bfa7
2026-04-14	9.20 index	obs:672304c6 obs:d092bfa7 obs:e47b7c9c
2026-04-07	9.20 index	obs:672304c6 obs:d092bfa7
2026-04-02	10.9 index	obs:24789a9d obs:ac6f1c2c obs:d092bfa7
2026-04-02	10.9 index	obs:24789a9d obs:d092bfa7 obs:ecc8d38a
2026-03-18	10.9 index	obs:24789a9d obs:d092bfa7 obs:f3ea468e
2026-02-24	8.56 index	obs:24789a9d obs:38c27cad obs:67eabbfe
2026-02-24	8.56 index	obs:08041a8a obs:24789a9d obs:67eabbfe
2026-02-13	8.56 index	obs:24789a9d obs:67eabbfe obs:e3a12ca8
2026-02-12	8.56 index	obs:24789a9d obs:3da03209 obs:67eabbfe
2026-02-11	8.56 index	obs:24789a9d obs:67eabbfe obs:736c2080
2026-01-27	7.31 index	obs:24789a9d obs:2c6d66e1
2025-12-22	9.14 index	obs:2c6d66e1 obs:466316df obs:98b05eac
2025-12-01	6.81 index	obs:98b05eac obs:b8094dfa
2025-11-06	4.51 index	obs:1c7351d4 obs:742dfda0
2025-09-30	4.97 index	obs:419a9a57 obs:b9b109d0 obs:cf9b8d4d
2025-09-29	4.97 index	obs:419a9a57 obs:cf9b8d4d
2025-09-18	6.12 index	obs:3cd44bf7 obs:419a9a57 obs:6a18110d
2025-08-21	6.12 index	obs:3cd44bf7 obs:419a9a57 obs:485deff9
2025-08-05	3.57 index	obs:3cd44bf7 obs:3db8a078 obs:e55bc3c4
2025-08-05	3.57 index	obs:3cd44bf7 obs:3db8a078 obs:8fc76c2b
2025-07-30	3.57 index	obs:3cd44bf7 obs:3db8a078 obs:b9d1348d
2025-07-29	3.57 index	obs:3cd44bf7 obs:3db8a078 obs:eeda15ae
2025-07-25	3.57 index	obs:1e33bb64 obs:3cd44bf7 obs:3db8a078
2025-07-25	3.57 index	obs:3cd44bf7 obs:3db8a078
2025-07-12	6.15 index	obs:3db8a078 obs:544cda92 obs:582cb356
2025-06-20	6.15 index	obs:3db8a078 obs:544cda92 obs:b0a58f51
2025-06-10	6.15 index	obs:18812e31 obs:3db8a078 obs:544cda92
2025-05-28	5.61 index	obs:544cda92 obs:84e81ae4
2025-04-29	7.55 index	obs:24daa5e6 obs:79fec319 obs:84e81ae4
2025-04-29	7.55 index	obs:24daa5e6 obs:84e81ae4 obs:e95375d7
2025-04-29	7.55 index	obs:24daa5e6 obs:654b5201 obs:84e81ae4
2025-04-28	7.55 index	obs:24daa5e6 obs:84e81ae4
2025-04-28	7.55 index	obs:24daa5e6 obs:84e81ae4 obs:9e16dac7
2025-04-06	5.19 index	obs:16349f90 obs:7a43eb87 obs:ffbdfdf5
2025-04-05	5.19 index	obs:16349f90 obs:7a43eb87 obs:93b1a8e3
2025-03-24	2.89 index	obs:10ea618e obs:7a43eb87 obs:bcf227fd
2025-03-17	2.89 index	obs:10ea618e obs:18b9535b obs:7a43eb87
2025-03-12	2.89 index	obs:10ea618e obs:7a43eb87 obs:f191d8c5
2025-03-12	2.89 index	obs:10ea618e obs:7a43eb87 obs:f50720e5
2025-03-12	2.89 index	obs:10ea618e obs:7a43eb87 obs:a1c4660f
2025-03-05	2.89 index	obs:10ea618e obs:7a43eb87 obs:ceedfe6c
2025-01-30	2.89 index	obs:10ea618e obs:7a43eb87 obs:8a74a427
2025-01-20	2.89 index	obs:10ea618e obs:54da32bc obs:7a43eb87
2025-01-20	2.89 index	obs:10ea618e obs:7a43eb87
2025-01-20	2.89 index	obs:10ea618e obs:7a43eb87 obs:88420c84
2024-12-26	9.52 index	obs:10ea618e obs:c73c464f
2024-12-12	5.41 index	obs:62f10f72 obs:dc85ebe1
2024-12-06	6.83 index	obs:34b670d8 obs:62f10f72 obs:a20cba20
2024-11-18	6.83 index	obs:34b670d8 obs:62f10f72 obs:cecf5b06
2024-09-24	6.83 index	obs:34b670d8 obs:62f10f72 obs:dc1d7b04
2024-09-24	6.83 index	obs:2738a649 obs:34b670d8 obs:62f10f72
2024-09-19	6.83 index	obs:34b670d8 obs:62f10f72 obs:f1fd127b
2024-09-19	6.83 index	obs:34b670d8 obs:62f10f72
2024-09-18	7.08 index	obs:1f183e55 obs:37270e7e obs:62f10f72
2024-09-18	7.08 index	obs:37270e7e obs:62f10f72 obs:76f3c5c7
2024-09-18	7.08 index	obs:37270e7e obs:62f10f72 obs:ed9903e3
2024-09-17	7.08 index	obs:2d6e1f8d obs:37270e7e obs:62f10f72
2024-08-30	1.25 index	obs:37270e7e obs:6843a028 obs:ea186d5d
2024-07-24	1.25 index	obs:37270e7e obs:4a4cd382 obs:6843a028
2024-07-23	1.25 index	obs:37270e7e obs:6843a028
2024-07-23	1.25 index	obs:36d63157 obs:37270e7e obs:6843a028
2024-07-23	1.25 index	obs:37270e7e obs:6843a028 obs:a0650583
2024-07-18	4.73 index	obs:1f8e6031 obs:6843a028 obs:b84eda20
2024-06-24	4.73 index	obs:6843a028 obs:b84eda20 obs:bfcde351
2024-06-24	4.73 index	obs:6843a028 obs:b84eda20 obs:d7b2efd0
2024-06-07	3.70 index	obs:7d6328da obs:b84eda20
2024-05-27	4.20 index	obs:003d3803 obs:7d6328da obs:99d1e99e
2024-05-09	2.48 index	obs:003d3803 obs:5f0fd4ff obs:db1f6e38
2024-05-07	2.48 index	obs:003d3803 obs:5f0fd4ff
2024-04-23	4.34 index	obs:320b1d08 obs:5f0fd4ff obs:e0e4a61b
2024-04-23	4.34 index	obs:320b1d08 obs:5f0fd4ff obs:b507785a
2024-04-23	4.34 index	obs:320b1d08 obs:5f0fd4ff obs:f5481f5a
2024-04-18	4.34 index	obs:320b1d08 obs:5f0fd4ff obs:e0ec8c33
2024-04-18	4.34 index	obs:320b1d08 obs:5f0fd4ff
2024-04-17	5.25 index	obs:5f0fd4ff obs:986cb72d
2024-02-22	8.05 index	obs:9882269f obs:d4db27a3 obs:f961e003
2024-02-21	8.05 index	obs:316dde89 obs:9882269f obs:d4db27a3
2024-02-21	8.05 index	obs:0e195191 obs:9882269f obs:d4db27a3
2024-02-20	8.05 index	obs:9882269f obs:a95c4a02 obs:d4db27a3
2024-02-20	8.05 index	obs:9882269f obs:d4db27a3 obs:e2f5ce92
2023-12-12	7.48 index	obs:236ef2af obs:3eb48f1f obs:9882269f
2023-12-11	7.48 index	obs:236ef2af obs:9882269f
2023-11-29	8.57 index	obs:236ef2af obs:6ec517ae obs:81b776da
2023-11-22	8.57 index	obs:236ef2af obs:6ec517ae obs:bc50face
2023-11-02	8.57 index	obs:236ef2af obs:5d4ccd16 obs:6ec517ae
2023-11-02	8.57 index	obs:236ef2af obs:6ec517ae
2023-11-02	8.57 index	obs:22ea928e obs:236ef2af obs:6ec517ae
2023-11-02	8.57 index	obs:236ef2af obs:50e4af3c obs:6ec517ae
2023-09-28	8.86 index	obs:236ef2af obs:5002911c obs:680c2f1b
2023-09-27	8.86 index	obs:236ef2af obs:246c7a59 obs:680c2f1b
2023-09-24	8.86 index	obs:236ef2af obs:33108208 obs:680c2f1b
2023-09-20	8.86 index	obs:236ef2af obs:680c2f1b obs:9d1225d2
2023-09-11	8.86 index	obs:236ef2af obs:680c2f1b obs:b8982197
2023-09-06	8.86 index	obs:236ef2af obs:48909882 obs:680c2f1b
2023-09-06	8.86 index	obs:236ef2af obs:680c2f1b obs:e9532bad
2023-07-20	8.86 index	obs:236ef2af obs:680c2f1b
2023-07-18	12.2 index	obs:236ef2af obs:60fe177d
2023-07-18	12.2 index	obs:236ef2af obs:60fe177d obs:ce04b387
2023-07-18	12.2 index	obs:236ef2af obs:2fffbfc4 obs:60fe177d
2023-06-27	15.9 index	obs:236ef2af obs:bc476aab obs:f63cef0c
2023-06-22	15.9 index	obs:236ef2af obs:59ad7c44 obs:f63cef0c
2023-06-01	15.9 index	obs:236ef2af obs:813cdb6d obs:f63cef0c
2023-05-25	15.9 index	obs:1461f90b obs:236ef2af obs:f63cef0c
2023-05-05	15.9 index	obs:236ef2af obs:6f9d13d6 obs:f63cef0c
2023-04-24	15.9 index	obs:236ef2af obs:d107090c obs:f63cef0c
2023-04-11	15.9 index	obs:236ef2af obs:98f32d0b obs:f63cef0c
2023-03-20	15.9 index	obs:236ef2af obs:50a7da2c obs:f63cef0c

5Status and reasoning

dispersingsince 2026-09-10 · evaluate

Evaluator: 5.77 (Epoch AI benchmarks and Capabilities Index, 2026-08-20) reads dispersing over 4 periods with a dead band of 2. Auto-reason; rule rationale: Four open-weights releases; a move under two ECI points is inside the index's confidence intervals. Widening gap = rents concentrating in the closed labs.

The tracker's prior expectation was stable; the evaluator reads dispersing. The evaluator wins until a reviewed override.

6Timeline notes

2026-08-20 · 5.77 indexas of 2026-08-20(3 obs)
2026-08-13 · 5.77 indexas of 2026-08-13(3 obs)
2026-07-31 · 5.77 indexas of 2026-07-31(3 obs)
2026-07-16 · 5.77 indexas of 2026-07-16(2 obs)
2026-07-15 · 11.5 indexas of 2026-07-15(3 obs)
2026-07-15 · 11.5 indexas of 2026-07-15(3 obs)

7Counterevidence

What cuts against this reading

ECI is one composite; open models are often released with a lag that the gap at release date understates; Chinese labs' compute constraints are the confound.

8Update history

2026-09-10unmeasured to dispersingconf — → 55 · evaluate
Evaluator: 5.77 (Epoch AI benchmarks and Capabilities Index, 2026-08-20) reads dispersing over 4 periods with a dead band of 2. Auto-reason; rule rationale: Four open-weights releases; a move under two ECI points is inside the index's confidence intervals. Widening gap = rents concentrating in the closed labs.
obs:2202dee6 obs:92d9e212 obs:ec19ff83

9Confidence

55 / 95 — mixed or hard to operationalise

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.

10Related

Concentration of business AI spend across labs (Ramp, HHI) unmeasured
Price per unit of capability (cheapest METR-hour on OpenRouter) not yet measurable