Lab recoupment ratio

emerging50/95lagging

1What this measures

OpenAI's latest revenue run-rate divided by all equity it had raised by that date (derived metric lab_recoupment_ratio, Epoch data).

Why it matters. The financial form of the return arrow. If deployment revenue is recouping invention capital, the loop is closing; if capital keeps outrunning revenue, the layer is being subsidised.

Proxy types: capital_flow
Unit: ratio
Cadence: monthly

2How we track this

derived metric lab_recoupment_ratio (formula in the semantic layer)

Direction over 3 periods, dead-band 0.05×; higher = concentrating.

Three points; a move under 0.05 is noise. A rising ratio means the lab is recouping capital faster than it raises it.

Applied to metric:lab_recoupment_ratio.

3Tracker interpretation

Large caveat, as the brief says - excludes debt, compute credits and cloud commitments, and the numerator is a run-rate.

4Evidence

Direction over the last 3 periods; the band is ±0.05× around the window's first point. Higher reads concentrating.

Latest point

0.22×as of 2026-08-13(12 obs)

Value the bands apply to

0.22×as of 2026-08-13(12 obs)

27 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.

Derived rows (16)

as of	dims	value	inputs
2026-08-13	openai	0.22×	obs:15d383db obs:167d5724 obs:2932a2f9+9 more
2026-02-28	openai	0.15×	obs:167d5724 obs:32257491 obs:3cedc058+8 more
2025-12-31	openai	0.35×	obs:167d5724 obs:206dd060 obs:32257491+7 more
2025-12-18	openai	0.50×	obs:32257491 obs:3cedc058 obs:4c7d05bb+6 more
2025-08-01	openai	0.34×	obs:0dfac555 obs:32257491 obs:3cedc058+6 more
2025-07-30	openai	0.40×	obs:32257491 obs:4c7d05bb obs:7a9b85b5+5 more
2025-06-09	openai	0.33×	obs:32257491 obs:46820cf0 obs:4c7d05bb+5 more
2024-12-31	openai	0.28×	obs:4c7d05bb obs:b892fe5d obs:c3b51b40+4 more
2024-09-12	openai	0.30×	obs:b8736550 obs:b892fe5d obs:c3b51b40+3 more
2024-08-15	openai	0.27×	obs:b892fe5d obs:c3b51b40 obs:c73ede82+3 more
2024-06-12	openai	0.25×	obs:b892fe5d obs:c3b51b40 obs:c73ede82+3 more
2023-12-31	openai	0.15×	obs:aad9c438 obs:b892fe5d obs:c3b51b40+3 more
2023-12-30	openai	0.12×	obs:b892fe5d obs:b91b5b17 obs:c3b51b40+3 more
2023-10-10	openai	0.10×	obs:21955e53 obs:b892fe5d obs:c3b51b40+3 more
2023-08-29	openai	0.07×	obs:b892fe5d obs:c3b51b40 obs:c73ede82+3 more
2023-03-01	openai	0.02×	obs:b892fe5d obs:c73ede82 obs:c8281312+2 more

5Status and reasoning

emergingsince 2026-09-10 · evaluate

First scoring. OpenAI's run-rate ($40B, Epoch/PYMNTS/Yahoo relaying Bloomberg, Aug 2026) over cumulative equity raised gives a ratio still under 1 with three points of history; the direction rule needs more periods, so emerging.

6Timeline notes

2026-08-13 · 0.22×as of 2026-08-13(12 obs)
2026-02-28 · 0.15×as of 2026-02-28(11 obs)
2025-12-31 · 0.35×as of 2025-12-31(10 obs)
2025-12-18 · 0.50×as of 2025-12-18(9 obs)
2025-08-01 · 0.34×as of 2025-08-01(9 obs)
2025-07-30 · 0.40×as of 2025-07-30(8 obs)

7Counterevidence

What cuts against this reading

Tier-5 inputs on both sides; equity raised is a floor on capital consumed.

8Update history

2026-09-10unmeasured to emergingconf — → 50 · evaluate
First scoring. OpenAI's run-rate ($40B, Epoch/PYMNTS/Yahoo relaying Bloomberg, Aug 2026) over cumulative equity raised gives a ratio still under 1 with three points of history; the direction rule needs more periods, so emerging.
obs:15d383db obs:167d5724 obs:2932a2f9 obs:32257491 obs:3cedc058 obs:4c7d05bb+6 more

9Confidence

50 / 95 — mixed or hard to operationalise

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.

10Related

Frontier-lab revenue run-rates concentrating
Bottlenecks #75 (Narayanan & Kapoor's list)