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Products · Deployment & application

Enterprise pilots with measurable P&L impact

consistent with normal55/95 confidence, mixed or hard to operationalisegrade Ccoincident

1What this measures

Share of enterprise generative-AI pilots that reach measurable P&L impact, from MIT NANDA's 2025 survey (5%). Disputed; Menlo's ~47% reaching production uses a different denominator.

Why it matters. The product-to-adoption valve in one number. If most pilots never pay off, adoption stays broad but shallow.

Proxy types
deployment, behaviour
Unit
share
Cadence
annual
Valve
product to adoption

2How we track this

  • series nanda.us_enterprise.pilots_with_pnl_impact_share.pt
  • series fortune.us_enterprise.pilots_with_pnl_impact_share.pt
  • source Fortune · default tier 5 · Fortune Media; short quotation
  • source MIT NANDA, The GenAI Divide · default tier 6 · Report
Normal band
≤ 10.0%
Fast band
≥ 30.0%
Falsifying
—

Normal = at most 10% of pilots with measurable P&L impact, the typical enterprise-IT hit rate; fast = more than 30%.

Applied to nanda.us_enterprise.pilots_with_pnl_impact_share.pt.

3Tracker interpretation

Consistent with the paper, and with every previous general-purpose technology; the number to watch is whether it moves at all in the 2026 wave.

4Evidence

Latest point
5.0%⚑disputedas of 2025-06-30
us_enterprise
Value the bands apply to
5.0%as of 2025-06-30

2 observations. Hollow points are disputed (see counterevidence). Every point links to its observation.

5Status and reasoning

consistent with normalsince 2026-09-10 · claude-initial-seed

MIT NANDA (Jul 2025): 5% of integrated pilots extract millions in value, the rest show no measurable P&L impact. Inside the normal band (<=10%). Disputed denominator; Menlo's 47% reach-production figure uses a different definition. Initial seed.

6Timeline notes

  • 2025-06-30 us_enterprise · 5.0%⚑disputedas of 2025-06-30

7Counterevidence

What cuts against this reading

One survey, disputed sample and denominator; Menlo's 47% reach-production figure on a different definition; the report is hosted only on a mirror.

8Update history

  1. 2026-09-10unmeasured to consistent with normalconf — → 55 · claude-initial-seed

    MIT NANDA (Jul 2025): 5% of integrated pilots extract millions in value, the rest show no measurable P&L impact. Inside the normal band (<=10%). Disputed denominator; Menlo's 47% reach-production figure uses a different definition. Initial seed.

    obs:f9abac97

9Confidence

55 / 95 — mixed or hard to operationalise

Confidence is independent of status: 90–95 multiple strong independent sources; 70–89 good evidence, some ambiguity; 50–69 mixed or hard to operationalise; below 50 limited or vague.

10Related